The Eventual Recession

 

Since early last year economists, market experts, and even corporate CEOs were predicting a recession for this year. Most of them said it would happen early in the year. A recession was the consensus view among experts, almost a foregone conclusion. With inflation surging to 9% last summer and the Fed aggressively raising interest rates, it was an easy story to sell…and believe.

Fast forward to the present. The same experts that said we would already be in a recession are now pushing their recession forecasts to the end of the year and even into 2024. Because recessions are normal functions of capital markets, eventually we expect to get one. So long as forecasters keep pushing out the date, they won’t be wrong – just “early.” And that is the crux of financial forecasts: you have to be correct in prediction and timing.

Recessions Are Not Equal

Recessions come in different sizes and durations. Some are long and deep (Global Financial Crisis) and some are brief and shallow. And others, like the COVID-19 recession, were deep but very brief. In fact, most people don’t even realize we were in an official recession because it was the shortest recession in history and the recovery was swift.

Many investors associate recessions with markets going down. Yes, that has happened and can happen. But markets have also gone up during recessions. Even if someone could accurately predict a recession, that doesn’t mean we would know how the markets will perform, which can influence an investor’s allocation.

A Greater Risk

While many people focus on the risk of a recession occurring, I think the greater risk is how investors respond to forecasts and expectations of a recession. After all, recessions don’t cause people to miss their financial targets. It’s investors’ reactions and investment decisions that influence their financial success (or failure). Peter Lynch said it best:

 

“Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections or trying to anticipate corrections than has been lost in corrections themselves.”

 

 

© The Behavioral Finance Network

Presented by David M Cyrs B.A., M.S., AIF® is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ PRACTITIONER , and Certified Retirement Counselor®, dual licensed as a  General Securities Representative and Investment Advisor Representative. He is the owner of CYRS Wealth Advisors an Illinois specialty Financial Planning and Wealth Management firm, which specializes in Retirement, Investment Wealth Management, and Estate Planning, with a Holistic Wealth Management focus. This document contains confidential, privileged information and ideas intended solely for the review of the intended audience/client/prospect of CYRS Wealth Advisors LLC, 1111 South Alpine, suite 701, Rockford, Illinois 61108. Ph 815-316-1111.Investments and Advisory Services offered through Commonwealth Financial Network^®, Member SIPC and FINRA, a Registered Investment Adviser.  Fixed Insurance products and services offered through CYRS Wealth Advisors, LLC or CES Insurance Agency.©2021 The Behavioral Finance Network. Used with permission. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.