Emotions & Investing
Tis the Season of Forecasts
Every December we get inundated with forecasts for the following year. These forecasts range from expected GDP and interest rates to stock market performance.
We are naturally attracted to forecasts because they purport to tell us what is going to happen, and they often are supported by persuasive reasoning and statistical analysis. After listening to a confident and persuasive forecast, especially if it is one we hope will come to pass, we may be inclined to make changes to our investment strategies in line with that forecast. But herein lies the mental deception. While forecasts appear to reduce future uncertainty, that is only an illusion because the investment markets are simply unpredictable.
Over the past 20 years, when polling economists and market strategists as a group to come up with a consensus forecast, not once did they forecast the stock market would be down the following year. Yet, we experienced six negative years. Additionally, experts predicted several recessions that never occurred and have been predicting a bubble for the last several years.
When it comes to forecasting the market and economy, it’s not so much about someone’s experience or knowledge. It’s about the predictability of the event. The market is impossible to predict because the future, by definition, is uncertain. Unexpected events (life happens), our responses to world events, and randomness make accurately forecasting the markets an impossible task. The proof is in the fact that no one can do it - consistently.
Not all forecasts need be ignored. Some are better than others. Forecasts that offer a large range of potential outcomes can be helpful in setting our expectations for the future. Creating a vision of what is certainly in the future is much more beneficial for our planning and decision-making than a specific forecast. Remember, the more specific the forecast, the more likely it will be wrong.
I read and review many forecasts that are published. I look forward to sharing with you in the coming weeks my thoughts along with productive expectations and perspectives to help us have a great 2022, no matter what the markets may do.
©2021 Behavioral Finance Network. Used with Permission
Presented by David M Cyrs B.A., M.S., AIF® is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ PRACTITIONER , and Certified Retirement Counselor®, dual licensed as a General Securities Representative and Investment Advisor Representative. He is the owner of CYRS Wealth Advisors an Illinois specialty Financial Planning and Wealth Management firm, which specializes in Retirement, Investment Wealth Management, and Estate Planning, with a Holistic Wealth Management focus.
This document contains confidential, privileged information and ideas intended solely for the review of the intended audience/client/prospect of CYRS Wealth Advisors LLC, 1111 South Alpine, suite 701, Rockford, Illinois 61108. Ph 815-316-1111.Investments and Advisory Services offered through Commonwealth Financial Network®, Member SIPC and FINRA, a Registered Investment Adviser. Fixed Insurance products and services offered through CYRS Wealth Advisors, LLC or CES Insurance Agency.©2021 The Behavioral Finance Network. Used with permission.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.